NALEO Educational Fund Projects At Least 11.6 Million Latinos Will Cast Ballots This November
Mirroring 2018’s Historic Turnout Numbers
Latino voter turnout projected to increase in key battleground states
Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada
Nearly one in 10 voters (9.8 percent) this year will be Latino,
marking a 34.1 percent increase from 2014
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund today released its 2022 Latino Vote Projections, offering a comprehensive analysis of expected Latino voter turnout both nationwide and within key battleground states during this year’s midterm elections. According to the projections, Latinos will once again play a decisive role in the 2022 midterm elections, closely mirroring 2018’s historic turnout numbers, with projected increases in the key battleground states of Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. Key findings include:
National Latino Vote Projections
At least 11.6 million Latinos will cast ballots in 2022, a 71.4 percent increase in the number of Latino voters from 2014.
Nearly one in 10 voters (9.8 percent) in 2022 are projected to be Latino, a 34.1 percent increase from 2014.
Latino voter turnout in 2022 is projected to be consistent with trends from the last two decades, which have seen continued, long-term growth in Latino voting rates over time.
While Latino voter turnout in 2022 is projected to mirror 2018’s historic numbers, the size of the eligible Latino electorate has increased over the same period. Therefore, it is possible to see a slight decrease from 2018 in the share of eligible Latino voters who cast ballots in 2022, further demonstrating the crucial need for sustained investments in reaching and mobilizing Latino voters early on, particularly in battleground states.
Battleground State Latino Vote Projections
Latino voter turnout in 2022 is projected to increase from 2018 in the key battleground states Arizona (9.6 percent), Colorado (8.9 percent), and Nevada (5.8 percent).
These increases are in contrast to NALEO Educational Fund’s projections for other states that, for the most part, have not benefited from the attention and investments that battleground states for which we project increases have received.
Election 2022 Latino turnout in California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and North Carolina will likely mirror the turnout of 2018.
New Mexico and Texas will see possible declines in Election 2022 turnout from 2018.
Non-Latino Vote Projections
Across the nation and in some states, we are also projecting that the 2022 non-Hispanic vote will decrease from the actual turnout in 2018 or that it will mirror the non-Hispanic vote in that year.
While the national Latino vote is projected to mirror 2018’s historic turnout numbers, the national non-Hispanic vote is projected to decrease by 3.8 percent.
“As the nation’s second-largest population group, Latinos are poised to once again make history in 2022 by playing a decisive role in critical midterm races across the country,” said NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas. “At least one in ten voters in this fall’s midterm elections will be Latino — and these projections are just the floor. While we expect to see Latinos turning out at a steady national rate consistent with what we saw in 2018, we also expect to see increased turnout in some of the most pivotal battleground states. Despite this growth, there is clearly still more work to do in many parts of the country to help Latinos reach their full political potential.”
2018 — A Record-Breaking Outlier
It is important to note that 2018 was a pivotal and record-breaking year for midterm elections — the highest in four decades.
Several statewide and congressional races featured Latino candidates, further driving Latino participation.
NALEO Educational Fund’s 2018 Tracking Poll showed that issues like the migrant caravan crisis along the border, a rise in anti-Latino measures, and comments about immigrants from then-President Trump helped fuel increased political activism and enthusiasm among Latinos, with 75 percent of Latino registered voters reporting that President Trump’s statements around the migrant caravan crisis, in particular, made them more interested in participating in Election 2018.
Voter turnout was up in all communities, ages, racial and ethnic groups across the board. Fifty-three percent of the citizen voting-age population cast ballots in the 2018 midterm elections, making 2018 an outlier in terms of record-breaking turnout.
The Numbers:
Projected Latino Vote 2022
Latino Vote 2018
% Change between 2018 and 2022
Latino Vote 2014
% Change between 2014 and 2022
United States
11,614,400
11,695,000
-0.7%*
6,775,000
71.4%
Arizona
644,600
588,000
9.6%
364,000
77.1%
California
3,251,000
3,300,000
-1.5%*
1,707,000
90.5%
Colorado
282,000
259,000
8.9%
218,000
29.4%
Florida
1,426,000
1,393,000
2.4%*
892,000
59.9%
Illinois
353,500
354,000
-0.1%*
218,000
62.2%
Nevada
165,100
156,000
5.8%
97,000
70.2%
New Jersey
469,900
471,000
-0.2%*
274,000
71.5%
New Mexico
218,400
242,000
-9.8%
179,000
22.0%
New York
752,000
731,000
2.9%*
502,000
49.8%
North Carolina
103,000
104,000
-1.0%*
53,000
94.3%
Texas
1,795,500
1,918,000
-6.4%
1,092,000
64.4%
*Not Statistically Significant
Projected Latino Turnout of Voting-Age Citizens
Projected Latino Share of All Voters
United States
36.3%
9.8%
Arizona
44.1%
22.8%
California
37.7%
25.3%
Colorado
43.7%
10.9%
Florida
41.9%
18.1%
Illinois
30.1%
7.9%
Nevada
35.5%
16.6%
New Jersey
47.5%
15.6%
New Mexico
36.8%
30.4%
New York
38.0%
12.1%
North Carolina
33.9%
2.4%
Texas
30.0%
21.2%
% Change Between 2018 and 2022United States-3.8%Arizona-1.2%*California-3.3%Colorado10.2%Florida-0.9%Illinois-6.5%Nevada-2.4%New Jersey-12.6%New Mexico5.8%New York-9.8%North Carolina9.3%Texas-4.1%
*Not Statistically Significant
Methodology: NALEO Educational Fund derived our projections of the Latino vote in Election 2022 by using a statistical modeling approach that takes into account trends in Latino voter turnout in the past five midterm election cycles. We determined Latino voter turnout in those cycles from Census Bureau data in its Current Population Survey biennial November supplements, Voting and Registration in the Elections of November 2002–2018 (because of data limitations, for North Carolina, we only used data from the 2010-2018 election cycles). Because the projections are based on past voting trends, they do not take into account the potential increase or decrease in Latino turnout that could result from challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic, more robust voter engagement efforts, naturalization trends, changes in voter registration and voting laws and practices, or other factors.
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